根据电力系统中广域测量系统(wide area measurement system，WAMS)通信主干网的自愈环形结构特点，以一个具代表性的4节点2纤双向通道环网为例，通过定性分析和定量计算相结合，提出了WAMS通信主干网的风险评估模型和计算方法。该模型将风险评估涉及的资产、威胁、脆弱点和风险影响4大要素有机融合。采用可靠性分析方法计算出风险事件发生的概率，借鉴层次分析法中构建比较判断矩阵实现风险影响值的量化计算，从而得出通信主干网的风险综合值。计算结果表明所提出的方法具有良好的实用性和可操作性，可用于后续的评估工作，并为电力系统制定安全保护策略提供了依据。

A mathematical model for risk assessment to communication backbone networks (CBN) in wide area measurement system (WAMS) was proposed. Considering the self-healing and ring structure characteristics of CBN, this paper gave a theoretical analysis to the model based on a typical ring network with 4 nodes and 2 optic fibers and double-direction, dual-passage through integrating qualitative and quantitative analysis. This model combined the four main factors of risk assessment together: assets, threats, vulnerabilities and risk impact. In order to get the final comprehensive risk value, the risk events probability and the risk impact value were calculated by reliability analysis and a comparison matrix which is borrowed from analytic hierarchy process (AHP), respectively. The results show that the method has a good operability and practicality, which can be used for follow-up assessment, and provides a basis to establish the security strategy for power systems.

国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2004CB217908)。